(dispatch of I US stock) Beijing time on December 6 message, before doing empty orgnaization Citron Research a few hours, release in the light of strange gucci outlets store tiger the triplet of 360 oppugns a report, the eye that reiterates 5 dollars marks a price.
Citron says, strange tiger otherwise controls a construction discounted gucci bags without the camp that tells his according to the facts to wall street, finance affairs of existence of otherwise strange tiger is con. The outside before original gucci bags this is right of Citron censure, it is more " do not know China " , " do not know Internet " and " do not know future " etc; Express to this Citron, what leather gucci bags it does not understand exclusively is maths: "Maths is put of great capacity all gucci bags outlet allows, 1+1=2, be in the United States, antarctic, spark and China is such; But no matter be designer gucci bags in which place, the number of strange tiger is not made the same score namely. The gucci bags 2012 number of strange tiger is not made the same score namely..
According to its the analysis of logarithm word is mixed a few interview, the gucci handbags battalion that Citron thinks strange tiger arises through Internet entrance business receives the battalion that should report far less at company place, although louis vuitton outlets surprise,the battalion of the tiger receives a number is correct, strange tiger the stock of this company also at least by overmeasure 4 to 5 louis vuitton outlets times. Citron more point out, if come off,drop the other stock rights and interests of strange tiger, so the market can close a susceptive city to be filled with to its advertisement battalion leading should be 1:1, but at present, this scale is 14:1 at least.
Citron thinks strange tiger is exaggerated income of advertisement of Hao.360.cn home page
The battalion of the 3rd quarter that strange tiger announces closes is 47.5 million dollar, predict the fourth quarter will reach 55 million dollar. Close to these battalion, how much does investor understand? The deliberate of able to bear of home page income of strange tiger?
Strange tiger says, the advertisement battalion of 75% controls this company the homepage that comes from it, namely Hao.360.cn, and have the search that 4 million dollar comes from Gu Ge about.
Income of home page advertisement is strange tiger 360 the biggest income source, they sell a page the link with every months of fixed price. Strange tiger says, differ according to business type of the client, collect fees also can differ somewhat. However we get very hard simple and the most important data, that collects fees every namely the average advertisement income of the link.
Citron says, they consulted in detail all information about strange tiger are empty-handed however. But final, an analysis that Citron publishs in Macquarie saw in the report so a word: "On Hao.360.cn home page every collect fees the average advertisement price of the link is 200 thousand yuan of RMBs - 250 thousand yuan of RMBs / month. "On Hao.360.cn home page every collect fees the average advertisement price of the link is 200 thousand yuan of RMBs - 250 thousand yuan of RMBs / month..
This report was published on August 29, before this, strange tiger is in Q1 raised advertisement price 2011 20%-25% . Of course, average level included to raise one share price, also lowered another share price at the same time. Accordingly, citron assumes average price is every month 225 thousand yuan of RMBs. There is link of website of 92 tripartite on the home page of Hao.360.cn, after among them a lot of links are clicked, enter be the same as a domain name. The link of song of take out cereal and Baidu, remain have 60-65 about the website that the link is tripartite enterprise. (having 9 among them is the link that cleans out treasure, the income that strange tiger weighs to have 10% about comes from clean out treasure, what we can assume these are linked is average collect fees be in higher level. )
Citron understands in the process that covers 2345.com, the link amount on their home page is 60 about, the case of Hao.360.cn is similar also. The basis links amount and average price, the quarterly income of home page of Citron conjectural Hao.360.cn is ~775.3846 of five million five hundred and thirty-eight thousand four hundred and sixty-two dollar about 10 thousand dollars. Citron thinks, this number and strange tiger place say " 20.9 million dollar " poor also too far.
Citron guesses, strange tiger 360 after seeing this report, regular meeting station comes out to say " still has a lot of blame to dog link (Non-tracked Links) also be the " that collect fees. Citron thinks this makes a person very hard believe, because the enterprise takes money,coming out is to let strange tiger take flow to them. The camp that should reach strange tiger place to say controls a standard, 130 advertisement link is put again even at least on the home page of Hao.360.cn. Citron says to ever wanted to sign up for telephone conference to manage a layer to raise this crucial question to strange tiger in money, dan Jihu can answer them only " cheering squad " the analyst's query.
Citron thinks strange tiger is exaggerated game business (monthly ARPU)
Strange tiger calls last quarters his webpage game income is 9.7 million dollar, number of user of game paying fee is 87, 000. Citron says, no matter be to be in China or United States, even if like Netease, have a good swim, royal such game company is finished impossibly also every pay charge door to contribute income every months on average the index of 53 dollars.
Citron shows the webpage discharge of strange tiger is checked hard
The business that Citron thinks strange tiger is current deserves doubt. But a lot of analysts are worth to the appraise of strange tiger is not to be based on its current business, be based on the prospective business that place of discharge of strange tiger home page forecasts however. Investor also needs to oppugn strange tiger and Ai Rui (tripartite investigates an orgnaization) the relation between.
Citron thinks the business domain of strange tiger is unsharpness
Domain of current to strange tiger business and the following direction do not have the analyst unanimous verdict. Someone says is " mobile " (impossible money is changed before 2014) , someone says is " search " (surprise it seems that tiger " press a key casually " can compete with Baidu) , someone says is to borrowed of IPhone interface " application distributes platform " . The problem is, no matter they foreknow what, any battalion are being contributed to close for strange tiger before doing not have one project.
(Article origin: I US stock)